The Verde Report: Austin FC Is Trending Toward Playoffs, Barely

Austin FC entered the week with 23 points through 18 games in 2024, an average of 1.28 points per game (courtesy of Austin FC)

So far it’s been a season of peaks and valleys for Austin FC.

The club has fluctuated everywhere from bottom three in the Western Conference to top three, and found itself entering the week smack-dab in the middle of the table in eighth place, after consecutive ugly road losses against Real Salt Lake and the Colorado Rapids.

In the new MLS playoff format instituted last season, in which 18 of the league’s 29 teams (that’s 62% for those keeping score) play postseason soccer in some form, Austin FC can still claim to be safely under the playoff umbrella as the second half of the season begins to unfold.

From day one, the sentiment from those at the club – whether it be head coach Josh Wolff, sporting director Rodolfo Borrell, or any number of players – has consistently reflected a single goal for the ’24 season: make the playoffs, no matter what that looks like.

“We want to be above the line,” Wolff reiterated Tuesday. “This season starts knowing where we were at before the season, knowing where we came from in the offseason, what our roster looked like, what we decided to do from a roster standpoint this year.

“I was quite pleased with where we were at the halfway point.”

Wolff’s propensity for pragmatism isn’t for everyone, and can certainly sometimes come across as self-flattery. By no measure has Austin FC been the toast of the league this season, but the club has also managed to string together positive results with more regularity than most expected coming into the season.

ATXFC accrued 23 points over its first 18 matches, for an average of 1.28 points per game. Extrapolated over an entire 34-game season, that pace would net the Verde and Black between 43 and 44 points.

That’s a pretty serendipitous figure. Since Austin FC joined MLS in 2021, the average number of points necessary to finish top-9 in the West is exactly 44. Austin is straddling that line with Wallenda-like precision.

In all likelihood, the club is going to dip below that line over the next month before MLS breaks for the second annual Leagues Cup tournament. (It may have already done so depending on the result of Wednesday night’s clash against LAFC at Q2 Stadium, which took place before this column went to print.)

Not only does ATXFC face stiff competition between now and then, the club is doing so while heavily short-handed with both Dani Pereira and Julio Cascante away on Copa America duty.

Austin won’t be the only club missing key players to international assignments, but considering Wolff’s bench was already thinner than most, El Tree can ill afford any absences.

The hope lies at the end of August, when the league reconvenes for the final nine games of the season. By that point, Austin FC won’t just be whole again, but the cavalry will have arrived. Club record signing Osman Bukari and experienced right back Mikkel Desler will both be eligible to join the ATX squad for the stretch run. Indications are Borrell is working to bring in other reinforcements as well.

There’s nobody for whom an Austin FC playoff berth would mean more than Wolff himself. In order to solidify his status as ATX head coach for a fifth season in 2025, he’d be well served to accomplish essentially the only goal on the club’s radar for this year.