The Verde Report: Austin FC Season Could Hinge on Upcoming Tough Stretch

Austin FC winger Jáder Obrian readies for a match at Q2 Stadium (Courtesy of Austin FC)

Like a Formula One car bringing its tires up to temperature over the first few laps of a race, it took Austin FC some time to get fully up to speed in the 2024 regular season.

The Verde and Black managed just three points and were without a win over their first five matches of the campaign. Then things shifted into high gear. In the following 10 matches, the club amassed 20 points, including six wins, and rose into the top five of the Western Conference.

Several factors have led to that huge uptick in results. Scoring timely goals at home, being tough to break down on the road and keeping the shorthanded squad relatively healthy have all contributed majorly. But there’s another uncomfortable reality to Austin FC’s recent success, one that’s about to abandon the Verde and Black for the better part of a month: the opposition has been extremely tame.

Only one of Austin FC’s opponents since the end of March began this week seeded higher than seventh in the West. (The lone team, LA Galaxy, which Austin FC beat 2-0 on April 27, remains El Tree’s best win of the season.) The other opponents – FC Dallas (twice), the San Jose Earthquakes (twice), St. Louis City, the Houston Dynamo (twice), the Vancouver Whitecaps, Sporting Kansas City, and the Portland Timbers – all make up seven of the bottom eight teams in the West. Combined, they’ve won 25 matches, drawn 29, and lost 45.

According to PlayoffStatus.com, Austin FC has faced the easiest schedule of all Western Conference teams through the first 16 games of the season.

Now, that alone is not a criticism of the Verde and Black. They don’t set the schedule, and you can only beat who’s in front of you. Austin FC has done that at an encouraging rate thus far.

But what goes up must come down, and ATXFC is now staring face to face with MLS’s version of a market correction. Which is to say, things are about to get a lot more challenging.

As you might expect, PlayoffStatus.com also lists Austin FC as having the toughest remaining schedule among Western Conference teams. And a big part of the reason why concerns the club’s upcoming stretch of four consecutive games against clubs at or near the top of the West. And to make things even more challenging, three of those four matches are away.

It begins Saturday night with the toughest matchup of all: at West pacesetters Real Salt Lake. RSL entered the week leading the West in points, wins, goals scored, and goal difference, having lost just once in seven matches at home.

Austin FC then gets two weeks off, followed by a brutal eight-day stretch that sees El Tree take on the Colorado Rapids – rejuvenated this season following a last-place finish in 2023 – on the road, followed by a stacked LAFC squad at home, and finishing on the road against the surprise team of the West this season, Minnesota United.

These next four matches could prove to be the pivotal stretch in Austin FC’s season. A strong showing (any outcome that results in four points or better, in this writer’s opinion) would cement Austin FC as a true dark-horse contender for a deep playoff run. Anything less, and Austin FC will have trouble ducking the narrative that their early-season success was simply a product of generous schedule-making.