Abbott Lifts COVID Rules: Will a Surge Follow?

The first anniversary of Texas' COVID-19 crisis will be observed with tragic irony as the state remains in a frustratingly, dangerously familiar place, with the virus just as prevalent as it was last spring and with few or no statewide health and safety mandates to combat the pandemic.

On Texas Independence Day (March 2), Gov. Greg Abbott announced that Texas' statewide mask mandate that he first enacted last July, among other COVID-19 restrictions, would be lifted next Wednesday, March 10. That will be one year almost to the day since Abbott first declared a state of disaster caused by the novel coronavirus. Under the governor's latest executive order, all businesses of all types, including restaurants and bars, will be allowed to open at full capacity, despite a specific warning earlier this week from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that states should not ease up now on public health precautions.

"It is now time to open Texas 100%," said Abbott on Tuesday, because "Texas is in a far better position now than when I issued my last executive order back in October." That order allowed most businesses to operate at 75% capacity under certain thresholds, as well as permitting bars to reopen at 50% if authorized by county officials. Abbott said businesses will still be able to implement safety protocols and won't be barred from requiring employees or customers to wear masks. "It is their business, and they get to choose to operate their business the way they want to. At this time, however, people and businesses don't need the state telling them how to operate," said Abbott.

Although new COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have all been trending downward in Texas (and in Austin and Travis County) from their all-time highs at the start of the new year, vaccine distribution continues to lag behind the ambitious goals set by state leaders, with only 7.2% of Texans being fully vaccinated, according to Texas Department of State Health Services vaccine data. In addition, Texas is No. 2 among the states (behind California) in its COVID-19 death toll – 42,995 deaths as of March 2, according to CDC data – and is in the top 10 with its COVID-19 death rate over the past seven days (0.8 per 100,000; Virginia currently tops this list).

A chorus of local officials and business owners across Texas has lambasted the new order as a premature and dangerous move. "There's no scientific basis for the governor now creating an ambiguity where none should exist," said Austin Mayor Steve Adler in a Wednesday morning press conference. "Masking works, and it continues to be necessary." Many Austin restaurants and other businesses took to social media on Tuesday night to double down on their commitments to either remain closed or to require social distancing and mask-wearing for customers and employees (read more). Laura Huffman, CEO and president of the Austin Chamber of Commerce, urged businesses to continue safety measures – and for customers to respect such protocols – despite the new executive order, for the good of both public health and the economy. "If you are concerned about our local businesses, then I urge you to respect the guidelines that they set," said Huffman. "If you're concerned that people are able to work so they can provide for their families, then wear a mask."

The new guidance says county officials are allowed to use "COVID-19 related mitigation strategies" if cases of the disease account for 15% or more of regional hospital capacity for seven consecutive days. This threshold is carried over from Abbott's October order, but now is more constrained; business capacity can be set no lower than 50%, and jurisdictions can't issue penalties to enforce mask mandates. No limits can be imposed on religious services, child care, public and private schools, and higher education institutions. As Texas school districts await updated guidance from the Texas Educa­tion Agency regarding Abbott's order, which the agency said in a March 2 tweet "will be coming this week," Austin ISD said it will continue to require all students, teachers, and staff to wear masks on district property and at AISD events.

Only hours before Abbott shared his new order with the public on Tuesday, Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott told Austin City Council and the Travis County Commissioners Court that Austin could ease into Stage 2 of local risk guidelines by early next month should the community continue its precautions. Escott has not commented directly on Abbott's new order, but he told Adler during Tuesday's briefing that a mask mandate through summer would allow Austin Public Health to get more people vaccinated. "The danger that we face by releasing or reducing some of those restrictions, particularly the mask mandate – which really has been the most effective public policy decision that the government has made – certainly has the potential to initiate a surge," he cautioned.