City Hall Hustle: Herd Instinct: Rounding Up the Strayhorns

Is the People's Republic of Austin – this liberal oasis of terminal democracy – actually staffed with battalions of Stray­horn sleeper cells? That was the alarming conclusion to be drawn last week from a poll conducted by KXAN-TV. On the eve of the station's televised mayoral debate (not coincidentally), co-hosted with the LBJ School of Public Affairs, the talking heads breathlessly hawked a poll showing a nearly "dead heat" among the front-runners, City Council Members Lee Leffing­well and Brewster McCracken and careerist political turncoat-cum-sometimes Republican Carole Keeton Strayhorn. According to KXAN's numbers, Leffingwell led with 27%, followed by McCracken at 24% – but a close third, with more than most observers might imagine, was the politician formerly known as One Tough Grandma, at 21% – supposedly within the poll's 3% margin of error and therefore a "dead heat" (that math only works, alas, if you add three plus three and come up with three).

What else were among the jaw-dropping revelations? That Strayhorn was miraculously polling highest, albeit "with a slight edge," among young voters. What could it be? Her wild-eyed, goofy TV entreaties? ("Not on my watch!") A well-intentioned if misguided attempt by Austinites to piss off Rick Perry in retrospect? The sweeping political awareness ushered in by Obama that now means the kids are clamoring to vote for a geriatric, white, snake-oil saleswoman?

Maybe – just maybe (fingers crossed) – could it be that KXAN's poll methodology had a few problems? It's hard to say without more public info, but we know the station contracted a Seattle polling firm, Constituent Dynamics, to poll 1,000 Austinites. That's a considerable sample, but the pollsters' only declared control was the requirement that those polled be from the ranks of "registered voters." In Austin, voter registration is in the 90th percentile – but we're lucky if a city election turnout actually cracks double-digits, so the lack of additional controls (e.g., participation in past city elections, likelihood of voting in this election, etc.) could undermine the results. A host of other potential problems (e.g., acquiring an overly conservative sample by phoning only landlines during daytime hours, etc.) could also skew the outcome.

Whatever the explanation, the poll did raise a persistent question: Just how strong is Strayhorn's support going into the home stretch?

She does have a few things going for her: Despite her lifetime of political opportunism, she's the "anti" candidate in this race, i.e., not an incumbent council member. Sure, she's screwed the city of Austin in countless horrific ways: To take only one example, although she's been cheerfully blasting renewable energy investments on the trail as too costly, she was the mayor (1977-1983) who bought Austin into the mother of all boondoggles, the South Texas (Nuclear) Project. But with the public's political memory quite fickle – "Strayhorn, yeah, I've heard of her" – none of her cardinal sins are grave enough to frighten off everyone.

Strayhorn reportedly enjoys one pocket of apparently surprising support, quarters of the African-American community. For instance, black community newspaper NOKOA: The Observer endorsed her. Some of the Eastside goodwill for Strayhorn dates to her time on the Austin Independent School District board from 1972 to 1977, as the school district finally made good on a long and convoluted desegregation process during her tenure.

Strayhorn's other group support is emerging from the increasingly loony-libertarian ChangeAustin.org. To co-founder and serial petitioner Linda Curtis, the biggest issue at stake this election is Senate Bill 690 (by Jeff Wentworth), which would make the number of petition signatures needed to alter the city charter the same as those needed to change an ordinance. (While problematic, the bill makes sense, as changing the charter – the city's constitution – shouldn't be easier than addressing a single ordinance, as is the case now.) Although the bill has already died an ignominious death in committee, the organization staged a Capitol rally and made the nonissue a rallying point of its endorsement discussions. Carole dutifully told the "Change" crew what they wanted to hear – unsurprisingly, since under the name "initiative and referendum" (the corporate-funded plague that destroyed California public schools and much of its government – see Exhibit 1, Gov. Arnold Schwarze­negger), petitions were also Strayhorn's GOP hobbyhorse at the Capitol. (You're shocked, we know.)

The group is also helmed by Stop Domain Subsidies ramrod Brian Rodgers and has been attracting like-minded conspiracists and faux organizations (see the latest Ron Paul campaign spin-off, Texans for Accountable Government) in their valiant quest to do ... something.

Oh, yeah – throw the bums out.

In ChangeAustin's latest missive, after enumerating political slights real and imagined, the Changers ask plaintively, "Leffingwell and McCracken – with friends like them, who needs enemies?" In Place 6, ChangeAustin endorsed yet another libertarian would-be government drowner and mini-Strayhorn, Sam Osemene. In that light, Strayhorn's version of the ChangeAustin question might well be: "With endorsements like these, who needs voters?"

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Holler at the Hustle on Twitter: www.twitter.com/cityhallhustle.