Naked City

Does John McCain have a couple of screws loose?

First he said he didn't pay for the telephone messages in Michigan that suggested George W. Bush was anti-Catholic. Then he admitted he did. On Monday, McCain said he wouldn't debate Bush tonight. On Tuesday, he said he would.

The flip-flops and backtracks may not have been the reason that McCain lost so badly in North Dakota, Virginia, and Washington, but it's clear that McCain is in trouble and that his bid for the GOP nomination may be over. He simply hasn't been able to compete with Bush's money and organization.

Bush is "back in the saddle," says Bruce Buchanan, a UT government professor. Buchanan says he was "a little surprised" by the margins of Bush's wins. But he still believes McCain's crossover appeal to Democrats and Independent voters may make him a better GOP nominee than Bush. "Maybe Bush can re-capture the old magic, but he's put himself in a hole by swinging to the right," says Buchanan. "He's got a reconstruction project to do."

The victories on Tuesday appear to validate the Bush campaign's strategy. In particular, Bush strategist Karl Rove had been hammered for spending too much money in too many different states, a strategy that may have led to Bush losses in Michigan and Arizona. But the Tuesday results put Bush back in the delegate lead. According to tallies by the Associated Press, Bush now has about 170 delegates, McCain about 100, with 1,034 needed to secure the nomination. (Final totals were still being tallied at press time.)

And McCain will be hard-pressed to regain the momentum that he gained in New Hampshire and Michigan. Polls now show him trailing Bush in California by 21 points. Next week, on Super Tuesday, California voters -- along with voters in New York and 11 other states -- will conduct their GOP primaries. At stake: 613 delegates, more than half the total needed to win the nomination. After that, the next big date for Bush is March 14, which has six primaries, all of them in the South, with 341 delegates at stake. By then, Bush will clearly be the nominee and all the planning will shift toward the November showdown with Al Gore.