Perry And White, Neck And Neck

Bill White (l) meets with Travis County Democrats Rep. Mark Strama and Sen. Kirk Watson (Photo by Richard Whittaker)

Big news in the race between Republican incumbent Gov. Rick Perry and Democratic challenger Bill White: The latest polling has them tied at 43%.

The figures, released by Public Policy Polling and based on a survey of 500 voters between June 19 and 21, are dismal news for Perry. Conventional wisdom is that an incumbent on less than 50% is in real trouble: Even with a +/-4.4% margin of error, that keeps him right in the danger zone.

Drilling into the numbers a little bit and Perry has some serious problems. He's currently only on a 36% approval rating: More surprisingly, that's only 54% amongst those that voted Republican in the last presidential election.

White's running slightly (but within margin of error) ahead at 37% favorable but only 25% unfavorable. His big liability is also his biggest opportunity: With 39% of voters still not sure how they feel about him, there's a lot of leeway and a lot of winnable votes. Team Bill is probably also pretty happy about the fact he's viewed favorably by 50% of moderates (compared to 22% approval for Perry) and wins in every age demographic bar the 30-45 group.

Much of the coverage of this race has been caught up in the Rasmussen Reporting numbers, which have consistently given Perry a seemingly unassailable lead. However, those numbers have always come with some concerns about Rasmussen's methodology, plus the firm's cultural tone-deafness. The fact that another pollster is looking at this race seriously suggests that the limelight is going to shine it. More media attention is what White will need, especially if it forces Perry into the debate he's so hell-bent on avoiding.

The real hammer blow for Perry? After all the talk about a 2012 presidential run, only 10% of Texans and a dire 14% of conservatives back him trying for the White House.