The Daily Hustle: 4/21/10 (Updated)

Is it really that time again?

It seems like only yesterday the Hustle was buried in the intricacies of the FY 2009-10 city budget. But, like a bad penny, a bad taco, or Carole Keeton Strayhorn, it's back!

Today, City Council took up their annual Economic Outlook and Five Year Forecast on the budget today, the kickoff to months and months of budget discussion.

The economic outlook presented by Jon Hockenyos, president of economics firm TXP, used lots of pretty pictures and slides to make his main point: Austin, while still battered by the recession, is handling it better than much else of the country. In the interest of brevity, we’ll put up his overview of Austin’s economy:

After a brief run-through of forecast highlights, budget officer Ed Van Eenoo got to the general fund – the money that pays for city services and the like. As you can see, the money spoken for in FY 2010 totals $614.9 million.

When estimating expenses, Eenoo factored in several assumptions: the negotiated 3% raises for sworn public safety responders, but also a 2.5% raise for civilian employees. And aside from allowing for the unmanageable – inflation, health insurance increases, etc. – it also budgets funds for council priorities, like moving to four-person staffing on fire engines, and for implementing the live outcomes, “no kill” plan for Austin’s animal center.

All that requires money, and estimated 2010 general fund revenue is $609.4 million

But those numbers are in flux – declining development revenue, says the city, has meant a hit. However, that’s been offset by slightly stronger than expected sales tax revenues. But all in all, like most years, there’ an estimated budget gap between revenues and expenditures. At the rollback property tax rate – the highest increase allowed by the legislature without a special election, a bump from $0.4209 to $0.4721 – the shortfall is estimated at $11.4 million. Under the effective tax rate – which brings in roughly the current amount of money – the gap swells to an estimated $28.1 million.

As the graph shows, they’ve depicted the different rates in long-term projections – point being that setting taxes at a lower rate today has repercussions lasting far into the future. At 2011, said Eenoo, the gap between the two rates is $16.7 million. But by 2015, the gap is over $100 million.

So what to make of today’s presentation? Well, for starters, a $11.4 million gap is far short of the last budget cycle’s $30 million rollback gap – and these projections have a convenient way of closing further nearer to the budget adoption in September. But the hallmark of last year’s budget process – City Manager Marc Ott’s insistence that the city was making structural, sustainable cuts, cutting unfilled positions, searching for efficiencies, and the like – means there’s less meat on the bone. Ott raised these issues at the onset of the presentation, noting the city’s continuing need to “tighten our belts,” and saying it may be necessary to downsize or do away with existing city programs to pay for new ones.

For you masochists that crave more, peruse the city’s budget page.

What the hell else is happening?

City Calendar highlights: The Downtown Commission meets in the Board and Commission room at City Hall, 310 W. Second, 5:30pm. They'll tackle the Bike Boulevard and the Waller Creek District Master Plan, among other topics.

The Urban Forestry Board meets at the Parks and Recreation Department, Board Room, 200 S. Lamar, at 6:30. Among new business is discussion of tree removal at the Morris-Williams Golf Course for the Mueller electrical substation.

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