Perry's Margin

Perry: 50 plus one still looks elusive for the incumbent (Photo by Richard Whittaker)

Polling, as we have pointed out on more than one ocassion, is an inexact black art science, but the latest Rasmussen numbers might be sending a chill through Gov. Rick Perry's campaign.

According to a Jan. 17 poll of likely GOP primary voters, Perry leads the field with 43 percent of respondents saying they would vote for him today. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison comes in with 33 percent, and Debra Medina is a single point ahead of "not sure" on 12 percent.

That's good for Hutchison and bad for Perry, because it raises the possibility of a primary run-off in April. Run-offs are generally the worst possible news for a campaign. They are expensive, often bitter, and give the other party a chance to work on the general election. On the other hand, Hutchison's camp is probably hoping for a run-off, as her campaign could probably do with a bit of a do-over. Her folks are probably examining the deep numbers that 73 percent of potential GOP voters view her either very or somewhat favorably, compared to 72 percent for Perry.

Similarly, Medina's folks are probably hoping they can do something about that 28 percent that don't have an opinion about her. It's doubtful that she can push back either established figure at this point, but she may be able to dilute the voting blocks enough to force a run-off.

The Democrats may have similar concerns in their own governor's race. Former Houston Mayor Bill White may have the bulk of the party behind him, but as the leader in a seven-candidate race, all it takes is for each of the other six to get 8 percent each and he faces a run-off as well. That said, he's probably feeling a little buoyed by the fact that, according to the latest campaign finance filings, lead challenger Farouk Shami loaned $3 million to his own campaign but only raised $57,071 and only has $6,129 left in his warchest.

White's campaign, on the other hand, has made a lot of the fact that, after being stuck in the slow-motion antics of the Senate campaign, their man has raised $90,000 a day since he first switched to the governor's race.