The Gathering Forces

"The general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought." – Sun Tzu, The Art of War"

The plans for the announcement of a consensus Republican candidate to replace Speaker Tom Craddick are well under way (supposedly on Friday, location TBA.) The ABC-Rs ("Anybody but Craddick" Republicans) are feeling pretty confident that it's a done deal, with Rep. Tommy Merritt, R-Longview, saying that this will less be a media event and more a "victory party" for the end of the Craddick era. "Just sit around the Capitol on Friday night and you'll see the smoke, just like when they pick the pope," he said.

But that doesn't mean that Craddick is just ignoring the struggle and letting his press office release his standardized "The speaker has the support of the majority of the House" line on a seemingly daily basis.

The Fort Worth Star Telegram is reporting that the pro-Craddick forces will be having their own strategy meeting on Sunday in Austin. Rep. Warren Chisum, R-Pampa, will be there (as, presumably, will Craddick's seemingly omnipresent aides de camp Terry Keele and Ron Wilson.)

Beyond that, the list of attendees is unknown, but there'll probably be some serious number-crunching going on. For Craddick to keep the gavel, either he has more pledges than he is admitting, or the "Anyone But Craddick" crowd has some waverers. But there's another theory that the incumbent simply doesn't have the numbers and that, in a reverse of what happened last session, with even loyalists wondering about the perils of another session with Mr Absolute Power at the helm, he's the one that will be dealing with defectors.