No Wonder McCain Called for a Time Out

The current state of the Electoral College, according to Real Clear Politics (image from RealClearPolitics.com)

You want evidence that John McCain's campaign is in trouble? While polls certainly still show the race as winnable for McCain, he will need several battleground states to break his way. And the big problem there is that several states have become battlegrounds that just four years ago were solid locks for Bush, a few other states that went narrowly for Bush are now leaning toward Barack Obama, and some of the states that were barely Kerry are more solidly Democrat.

Take a look at the Real Clear Politics site page tracking the electoral college count. In 2004, Bush took North Carolina by a healthy 12.4%, Virginia by 8.2%, and blew Kerry out in Indiana by 20.7%. The RCP polling average now pegs McCain's leads in those states as only 3.2%, 0.8%, and 2.3%, respectively – in other words, all within the margin of error.

States that look likely to flip: New Mexico went for Bush by 0.7% but now appears to lean 6% toward Obama. Colorado supported Bush by 4.7% but now gives Obama a fairly comfortable 5.4%. And Iowa, which gave Bush a narrow 0.7%, now appears to be firmly Obama at 9.4%.

Of course, the only poll that matters will be conducted on Nov. 4, but McCain must be nervous. Here's the real kicker: Enough states are in play that McCain could actually take both Ohio and Florida, the most crucial states in 2000 and 2004, and still lose.