Cornyn vs. Noriega

"Demographics is destiny" is a mantra amongst electioneers and campaign professionals. With the withdrawal this morning of Mikal Watts from the Democratic primary for the US Senate, that leaves the real election fight next November looking like incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-TX, vs State Rep. Rick Noriega, D-Houston. For campaign watchers, this is Old Texas versus New Texas, that demographic tipping point they've been waiting for in election politics.

Of course, campaign staff always used to say that money equaled votes, and cash was the selling point for the previously unelected Watts. By late September, he reportedly had an $8.3 million war chest, but since he'd loaned his own campaign $7.5 million of his own cash, that sum doesn't sound so great.

While some observers had been boosting the Watts campaign as fresh blood in the race, the political novice looked more like fresh meat. Politicos with slightly longer memories also saw the shadow of Tony Sanchez on him. The Democratic 2002 gubernatorial candidate came in on a wave of cash and good will, and then took an 18-point drubbing from Rick Perry.

The thinking back then among campaign managers was that, with a rising Hispanic vote, a Hispanic candidate could take down Perry. Now those same politicos are looking to Noriega to take down Cornyn. Yet the glib "demographics is destiny" line could just be an excuse. The five-term state rep and career military man comes to the campaign with endorsements from ranking state and national Democrats and, importantly, more individual donors than Watts ever managed. It's these traditional campaign assets that could make him the biggest threat to Cornyn.